Best of Twitter - Week of April 12, 2021
How good are doctors at diagnosis?
This is the most relevant paper I have written. Not perfect but addresses a huge issue I think could change medicine if acknowledged
…it has changed how I think about diagnosis
ja.ma/3rQNtjv
@JAMAInternalMed
@drjohnm
1/n
summary:
Clinicians widely overestimated chance of disease especially after testing
Cardiac ischemia after + ECG—EBM 2-11%, median answer 70%
UTI after + urine cx—EBM 0-8.3%, answer 80%
Breast CA after + mammo—EBM 3-9%, answer 50%
Pneumonia after + CXR EBM 46-65%, answer 95%
^ ht Jordan Schneider
Psychology 1850-1920: "Ideas I Had On Coke That Sounded True"
Psych 1920-1970: "Look if you're not cutting off dog heads and attaching them to electrodes why call yourself a scientist?"
Psych 1970-onwards: "Ideas I feel like testing on college students that don't replicate"
Yeesh Zymergen's first product Hyaline initially made with chem synthesis not fermentation 😬
Varro Analytics @Varro_Analytics
^ interesting thread
"We can wait a while to explore...but we shouldn’t wait too long. If the Universe continues its accelerating expansion as predicted by the usual model of cosmology, eventually all galaxies outside our Local Group will become completely inaccessible..." johncarlosbaez.wordpress.com/2021/04/09/the…
“mood is influenced most not by success or failure but by rate of progress toward a goal.… Baseline mood is remarkably stable for most people, and variations reflect mainly the rate of progress toward a goal” amzn.to/3t9FWgX
^ also makes me think of:
"Man barely moves for a week, staring at patterns of light [] trying to make [patterns] change. Every 2-4 hours, a stimulus is presented and he records how happy he is. He eats and sleeps as fast as he can []
It is the happiest week he has ever recorded"
^ our happiness intuitions are not good
New DRACO project to improve maneuverability in space between Earth and moon announces industry teams -- @GeneralAtomics, @blueorigin, @LockheedMartin. DRACO will develop a spacecraft driven by nuclear thermal propulsion. darpa.mil/news-events/20…
^ i’m often asked why I’m bullish on the US to the exclusion of almost every other country on earth. this is why
"mimetic traps" briantimar.github.io/notes/mimetic/…; or, "why peter thiel is basically right about everything"
...what the fuck else haven’t I been taught?!?
The paper linked in thread:
ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…
halvorz ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ @halvorz
^ interesting thread for quoted tweet
Great newsletter, as usual. It may be worth pointing out explicitly that the last tweet (@TurnerNovack) is satire...tbh it got me for a few minutes until I remembered the PageRank paper...